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Nvidia and Salesforce revive the AI trade as markets await Warsh at Jackson Hole

Nvidia and Salesforce revive the AI trade as markets await Warsh at Jackson Hole
Moki
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Nvidia's blowout quarter put technology stocks back in control, and Salesforce showed AI optimism spreading into software. But investors are still waiting for Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech to clarify inflation, interest rates and whether the rally can broaden.

Nvidia keeps the AI trade alive, with Nasdaq leading the market

Nvidia keeps the AI trade alive, with Nasdaq leading the market

Nvidia reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 18% sequentially and 106% from a year earlier, while Data Center revenue rose 117% to $89.0 billion. The company guided fiscal third-quarter revenue to $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, and said the outlook assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China. Reuters said Nvidia rose as much as 8.9% on Thursday, lifting the U.S. semiconductor index by about 1.6%, the S&P 500 technology sector by about 3%, and the Nasdaq by roughly 1.4% during the session.

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Salesforce shifts the AI story from chips to enterprise software

Salesforce gave investors evidence that AI can support software revenue rather than only hardware demand. Second-quarter revenue grew 11% to $11.35 billion, adjusted EPS was $5.90, and the company raised fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to $46.1 billion-$46.4 billion from $45.9 billion-$46.2 billion. It also lifted adjusted EPS guidance to $16.67-$16.71 and announced Claudeforce, an expanded Anthropic Claude integration for sales, service and marketing workflows. Reuters said Salesforce rose more than 21% intraday, while CrowdStrike climbed more than 19% after its own stronger outlook, easing concerns that AI would simply erode traditional software models.

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Jackson Hole puts inflation and rate guidance back at the center
Image / AP News

Jackson Hole puts inflation and rate guidance back at the center

After Nvidia, the next market catalyst is Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. The Kansas City Fed said the symposium runs August 27-29 under the theme 'Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy,' with Warsh scheduled for 10 a.m. Eastern on August 28. AP reported that Warsh has deliberately offered less forward guidance than predecessors, but investors now want clarity on whether inflation remains the central policy problem and whether rates may stay high or rise again. Reuters also noted that a hotter-than-expected PCE reading and comments from Fed officials kept inflation concerns alive, limiting how far the AI-led rally can broaden before the speech.

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Dollar-store earnings show consumers trading down, not disappearing

Consumer stress showed up in where shoppers are spending. Reuters reported that Dollar General and Dollar Tree both beat quarterly sales estimates as higher gas and food prices pushed shoppers toward lower-priced groceries and essentials. Dollar General's same-store sales rose 3.5%, and it raised full-year comparable-sales guidance to 2.5%-2.9% from 2.2%-2.7%, with fiscal 2026 EPS expected at $7.80-$8.00. Dollar Tree recorded its first increase in average traffic in four quarters but still pressured its stock with a weaker current-quarter profit forecast. The results point to a split consumer backdrop: demand has not collapsed, but lower-income shoppers are clearly moving toward value channels.

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Global markets follow Nvidia only partly as oil and bonds restrain risk appetite

Nvidia's results lifted global equities, but the follow-through was not uniform. Reuters said MSCI's global stock gauge rose 0.38%, Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan closed up 0.3%, and South Korea's KOSPI gained 1.5% as chip stocks benefited. U.S. Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year at 4.656% and the 30-year at 5.1806%, yet Brent crude rose 1.15% to $88.85 on Middle East and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty. The market is willing to reprice AI growth, but oil, inflation and the Fed still constrain a broader risk-on move.

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