Nvidia lifts tech stocks as sticky inflation and China stimulus frame the global business outlook

Moki

3 min read·2026/08/28

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Moki

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Global business enters Friday with two opposing forces: Nvidia’s blockbuster AI outlook is supporting technology shares, while sticky U.S. inflation, a wider goods deficit, pressured value consumers and China’s delayed stimulus rollout keep the macro backdrop fragile.

Image / NVIDIA Newsroom

Nvidia validates AI spending, but the rally stays narrow

Nvidia reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, with data-center revenue rising 117% to $89.0 billion. Its fiscal third-quarter revenue outlook of about $108 billion reignited the AI trade, lifting Nvidia shares 8.7%, the Nasdaq 1.57% and the S&P 500 0.72% on Thursday. The strength also helped Salesforce and CrowdStrike, whose outlooks eased fears that AI would hurt software business models. Still, most S&P 500 sectors fell, and Nvidia’s outlook assumes no China data-center compute revenue, so export rules and capital intensity remain constraints.

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Jackson Hole turns payment innovation into an interest-rate event

The Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium runs from August 27 to 29 under the theme “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy,” with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to speak on August 28 at 10 a.m. EDT. Markets will listen less for payment-system theory than for how he frames inflation and financial conditions. BEA’s July data showed personal income up 0.4%, spending up 0.2% and real PCE almost flat, while headline PCE inflation ran 3.7% year over year and core PCE 3.3%, still above the Fed’s 2% target.

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The U.S. goods deficit widens as inventories rebuild

The Census Bureau’s advance indicators showed the July goods trade deficit widening to $118.8 billion, up $17.4 billion from June. Goods exports fell $6.0 billion to $199.4 billion, while imports rose $11.4 billion to $318.2 billion. Inventories also rose: wholesale inventories increased 1.3% from June to $959.1 billion, and retail inventories rose 0.7% to $838.5 billion. The mix points to a third quarter in which import demand and stock rebuilding may support business activity but could subtract from GDP through net exports.

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Dollar stores show consumers are still spending, but trading down

Dollar General and Dollar Tree both beat quarterly sales estimates as shoppers sought cheaper groceries and everyday goods. Dollar General’s same-store sales rose 3.5%, and it raised its full-year comparable-sales growth outlook to 2.5%–2.9%; Dollar Tree posted its first traffic increase in four quarters but kept its annual sales target and guided current-quarter profit below expectations. Tariff refunds helped both companies lift earnings targets, so the results show resilient traffic but also the limits of household demand: lower-income shoppers are cutting discretionary purchases while chasing value.

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China leans on targeted credit and quasi-fiscal tools

Beijing is trying to support weak demand without announcing a single all-out property bailout. The finance ministry said China had allocated 187.5 billion yuan to consumer-goods trade-in programs, generating 178 million purchases worth about 1.32 trillion yuan, and expanded interest subsidies for consumer, SME and service-sector loans. Separately, Reuters reported that an 800 billion yuan policy-financing tool for local-government projects has opened for applications. The facility could leverage larger investment, but fixed-asset investment fell 6.7% in January–July and analysts warned that project selection and disbursement delays may push much of the impact into late 2026 or 2027.

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