Mortgage relief fails to revive housing as China and CRE refinancing risks deepen

Moki

2 min read·2026/08/24

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Moki

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Today’s real estate picture is not a clean rebound. Taiwan’s mortgage disbursements jumped on policy-loan timing, U.S. rates eased only slightly while sales stayed soft, China’s Evergrande fallout kept dragging on confidence, and commercial property lenders faced a sharper refinancing reset.

Taiwan mortgage lending jumped, but the driver was policy timing

Taiwan’s central bank reported that the five major banks made NT$69.109 billion in new home-purchase loans in July, up NT$11.135 billion from June, while the mortgage rate slipped to about 2.290%. Follow-up reporting put New Qingan policy loans at 45.04% of that new mortgage volume. The surge therefore looks more like a rush to complete policy-linked applications and handovers before the lunar Ghost Month than a broad recovery in transaction demand.

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Image / freddiemac.com

U.S. affordability remains the binding constraint

Freddie Mac’s August 20 survey put the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.65%, down from 6.67% a week earlier but still above the 6.58% level a year ago. MBA’s latest survey showed total mortgage applications down 0.4%, with purchase applications down 2% for the week and 3% below a year earlier. NAR’s July existing-home-sales report also showed sales down 1.7% to a 4.06 million annual rate, even as inventory improved from pandemic-era shortages. Lower rates are helping at the margin, but monthly payments remain too high for many buyers.

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Image / Yahoo Finance

Evergrande’s legal reckoning does not end China’s property slump

Reuters reported that Evergrande founder Hui Ka Yan was sentenced to life imprisonment on August 20, and a Guangzhou court accepted a bankruptcy-liquidation petition against Hengda Real Estate, Evergrande’s main mainland unit, on August 21. The case closes another legal chapter, but it does not clear unfinished homes, weak land sales, falling construction activity or the loss of confidence among households. July data still showed year-on-year home-price declines across first-, second- and third-tier cities, keeping property a drag on Chinese growth.

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Image / CRE Daily

Commercial real estate is splitting between debt stress and AI-linked demand

CRE Daily, citing CRED iQ, reported that more than 2,600 conduit and small-balance CMBS loans with balances above $100 billion mature over the next nine months, and refinancing now costs roughly 114 basis points more than the coupons on those loans. Multifamily distress in that pool was 7.5%, above retail and hotel. At the same time, JLL reported 25 GW of North American data-center absorption in the first half of 2026, vacancy near 1%, and $17 billion of data-center CMBS and ABS issuance. The property market is therefore bifurcated: debt-heavy assets face higher coupons, while power-constrained data centers remain strongly bid.

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